World Travel Trends Report out

From today's Smith Travel Research Global Hospitality News --

World Travel Trends Report: Europe Continues To Exceed The Long-term Growth Forecasts

"With a 4% increase in international tourist arrivals from January through August 2007, Europe looks set to achieve another record year in terms of tourism growth, according to the World Travel Trends Report of ITB Berlin and IPK International.

Moreover, as the participants gathered in Pisa for the 15th World Travel Monitor Forum from 24-26 October agreed, the growth is remarkable since it will exceed the World Tourism Organization’s (UNWTO’s) long-term annual growth forecast for Europe of 3% for the fourth consecutive year.

If the 4% increase seen in the first eight months of this year continues through to the end of 2007, this will mean an additional 18 million arrivals – no mean feat for the world’s most mature destination region.

Demand for Central & Eastern Europe seems to have largely bottomed out…

Nevertheless, as data gathered from their members by UNWTO and the European Travel Commission (ETC) shows, the Europe-wide average for inbound tourist arrivals, estimated by UNWTO based on data available at the end of October, masks some fairly wide variations from one sub-region to another." ...

"…and other sub-regions have shown mixed results

Northern Europe, on the other hand, has shown a marked slowdown in growth this year – largely due to the stagnation in international visitors to the UK – although some destinations have turned in good results. Finland is one example, having recorded a growth of nearly 8% in overnight volume from January through August.

Growth to Western Europe has also slowed, according to UNWTO – albeit only from 5% to 3% – attributed in part to Germany’s decline in arrivals through the second quarter of 2007. This was of course hardly surprising, given the huge boost to inbound tourism demand over the same period in 2006 provided by the country’s hosting of the FIFA Football World Cup.

Europe’s star performer this year so far, in terms of sub-regions, is Southern/Mediterranean Europe – up 7% in terms of international arrivals through the month of August. The sharp recovery of Turkey has been a main contributor to the improved performance, but the Balkan States have also performed well above average – in particular Montenegro and Serbia – and Malta has had an excellent year so far, largely thanks to the introduction of low-cost airline services.

European inbound is mainly intra-regional

The performance of long-haul markets to Europe has been very mixed, ETC’s data shows, mainly due to the unfavourable exchange rates – in particular, between the US dollar and the euro and pound sterling. Nevertheless, although US outbound travel to Europe grew by only 1% in the first eight months of 2007, according to the Office of Travel & Tourism Industries in the US Department of Commerce, a number of European destinations showed good results out of the USA, according to ETC. And emerging markets such as India and China are starting to fulfil their growth potential.

The vast majority of international arrivals in Europe are, nonetheless, intra-regional and, as highlighted by the results of IPK International’s European Travel Monitor, outbound trip volume by Europeans rose by 3% from January through August 2007, with the growth in short trips (of 1-3 nights) outpacing that of trips of 4+ nights – again, attributable to a higher than average increase in demand for low-cost/no-frills flights.

New leading outbound markets

Interestingly, the 3% rise in outbound trip volume was achieved despite a stagnation in outbound travel demand by Europe’s leading source markets, Germany and the UK – which, together, account for around 35% of total European outbound trips." ...

"The favourable exchange rates (for markets in the eurozone and the UK) provided a major boost to outbound travel demand, with trips to long-haul destinations growing by 4% as against +2% to destinations in Europe and the Mediterranean basin. As a result, long-haul countries featured strongly in the list of ‘superstar destinations’ – those recording more than 10% growth out of Europe. These included China, Japan, Cambodia, Vietnam and Kenya." ....

"Markets with the highest outbound travel intentions are the UK, Germany, Belgium, Ireland and Norway." ...

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