suburban slump around Sacramento

from today's Sacramento Bee

Suburban growth slows
Placer, El Dorado population boom experiences a lull
By Phillip Reese - And Carrie Peyton Dahlberg
Published 12:00 am PST Thursday, December 20, 2007

"A few years ago, Placer and El Dorado counties were red hot, flush with Bay Area transplants and drawing more residents each year at a tremendous rate.

Now that trend is cooling.

Both counties grew at a slower pace in the past fiscal year than during any of the previous 35 years, according to population estimates released Wednesday by the California Department of Finance.

Placer County's population rose by 2.1 percent from July 2006 to July 2007. El Dorado County added 1 percent – matching the statewide rate. Both counties saw less than half their dizzying annual growth at the height of the local housing boom.

In the rest of the region, growth remained relatively steady: a little over 1 percent in Sacramento County; about 2 percent in Yuba and Yolo counties; and about 3 percent in Sutter County.

Population growth affects everything from tax revenues to additional retail outlets to housing prices. The slowdown is making local governments more cautious about spending decisions, with some holding vacancies open longer, shrinking operations or mobilizing task forces on cost cutting.

Slowing growth, however, could give the region breathing room for better planning, according to some environmentalists. And many local officials contacted Wednesday downplayed the numbers, saying that lower rates of growth may be healthy.

"It isn't all necessarily bad news," said Gordon Garry, director of research and analysis for the Sacramento Area Council of Governments.

Garry noted that Placer County still grew faster than all but eight other counties in the state. In El Dorado County, he said, a slowdown might help alleviate the current lopsidedness of being "high on houses and low on jobs."

Even so, Placer County hasn't seen a lower rate of population growth since 1971, according to state figures. And El Dorado's hasn't been this low since 1968.

The driver for the change appeared to be a statewide drop in domestic migration – movement from one part of the country to another. Instead, all of California's growth this year came from natural increase – more births than deaths – and immigration from other countries." ....

"California's chief economist, Howard Roth, also noted that places like Roseville and Lincoln can't grow forever without expanding their borders.

"Local economies are maturing – building is slowing down," Roth said.

Then there are the foreclosures. California residents who have lost their homes, Roth said, are opting to move out of state.

In all, about 90,000 more people left California than came here from another state this year, and Roth said that trend may be cause for concern.

When more residents leave than arrive, he said, it "often relates to what people think of California. Our economy is slowing down. We had a pretty big housing bubble that burst."

Locally, the slowing growth rate is being felt widely. El Dorado County has reduced its building services division by about a third because construction has slowed so much, particularly in once-booming El Dorado Hills, said Laura Gill, the county's chief administrative officer.

Some projects have been put on hold indefinitely, while other builders have told the county they're finishing homes under way but won't start new ones, Gill said." .....

"While Roseville's growth is slower than during its peak years, it has rebounded some as the city gears up to develop its western flank, said city manager Craig Robinson.

Homebuilders took out 1,250 single family building permits in 2007 – though that is down from a high of 2,000 a few years ago, he said – while the two malls are expanding significantly." ....

"Rocklin has long been preparing for the day when land it set aside for new neighborhoods is fully occupied, said city manager Carlos Urrutia.

"We're pretty well planned out; we know where we're going," he said. The recent slowdown means that buildout will not come in 2012 or 2013 as expected, and Rocklin will have to budget carefully along the way, Urrutia said." ....

"Environmentalists are hoping that as the race to build suburban homes slows, their lobbying for central, infill development could gain ground.

"It's a chance to stop paving over farmland, do the infill, take stock and figure out how to deal with growth issues instead of blindly handing out building permits," said Jim Pachl, legal counsel for Friends of the Swainson's Hawk." ....

for the complete story see:
http://www.sacbee.com/101/story/580769.html